SCOTT SIMON, HOST:

One question come Election Day is how a couple of key groups might vote, or not – those who supported former Governor Nikki Haley in the primaries and those who said they didn’t want to vote for either President Joe Biden, who’s now left the race, or former President Donald Trump. What’s their thinking now that the presidential race has changed so dramatically? Rich Thau of Engagious, a public research firm, has been talking to such voters throughout this election cycle for many outlets, including NPR. He joins us now. Thanks so much for being with us.

RICH THAU: Great to be with you.

SIMON: Have you noticed any movement among voters who once supported Nikki Haley but couldn’t bring themselves to support Donald Trump towards Vice President Harris?

THAU: So among people who voted for Nikki Haley, what we are not seeing is movement from Trump to Harris. What we are seeing is movement from people who supported Haley, were inclined to vote for a third-party candidate this year – those folks are moving toward Harris.

SIMON: What about those voters who said they just couldn’t bring themselves to vote for either Biden or Trump?

THAU: Well, those are folks who generally are thinking about voting for a third-party candidate, and in that case, some of those people, I think, Harris can peel off.

SIMON: Any particular encounter, interaction, conversation you’ve had with anyone that stays with you that we can learn from?

THAU: Well, there was a lot of conversation about how they felt about Harris. We spoke to these folks two days after Biden had dropped out of the race, and they were really all over the place in terms of what came to mind when they thought of her. People who were not inclined toward her were talking about how she cackles. They talked about how she was supposed to be in charge of the border, and the border is still a mess. They talked about not knowing what she’s been doing as vice president the last several years.

People who are more inclined toward her – was just a few of them – thought that she was providing some interesting and useful leadership, that she was setting a good example, that they like the fact that a woman was running for president, but again, still not having a huge sense of knowing a lot about her.

SIMON: Is this different from a lot of the polls we’ve been seeing?

THAU: Well, I think it gives color to what we’re seeing in the polling – the shift that we’ve seen in the polling where Harris’ numbers have risen. A lot of it’s coming at the expense of third-party candidates. Kennedy’s numbers have dropped, for example. And I think part of what’s happening – at least in my focus groups – not only with Haley voters, but Trump to Biden swing voters, is that up until Biden’s leaving the race, there was a feeling among a lot of these people, I can’t stand either one of these people. I really don’t want either one as a choice, so I will migrate to a third-party candidate. Because they’d say to me, they just couldn’t abide voting for Trump or Biden. Well, lo and behold, the choice is now Trump versus Harris. Rather than voting for a third-party candidate and not getting much value out of my vote, I’ll take a second look at Harris.

SIMON: And in a close election, that could make a significant difference, couldn’t it?

THAU: Absolutely. I mean, let’s keep in mind in the 2020 election, the outcome was decided by fewer than 44,000 votes in Wisconsin, Arizona and Georgia combined. If those people had voted for Trump instead of Biden, Trump would be president today. It’s a minuscule fraction of 1%. So, yes, they could make a huge difference in the outcome of the election.

SIMON: What seems to be driving voters, in your mind?

THAU: For a lot of the people I talk to, the current economic situation feels to them like the summer of 1980 or the summer of 1932 during the depths of the Great Depression. They are really struggling economically and mostly because of inflation. And they’re very unhappy about the way the economy is performing. And I can only imagine the recent news about the job situation in the U.S. The numbers released on Friday are going to have a similar impact on them. They’re going to say, oh, this is just more evidence of the economy being in trouble.

SIMON: Well, I was going to point that out. A lot of economists say, on the contrary, the economy is doing very well.

THAU: Well, they are. But if you talk to the people in my focus groups, again, you’d think that, you know, they’re listening to FDR on the radio (laughter) talking about nothing to fear but fear itself. You know, these folks are really, really struggling economically, and inflation taking a huge bite out of their paycheck – also feeling that their expenses are outstripping their income. They’re having a hard time making ends meet. It’s groceries; it’s gasoline; it’s housing. Go down the list. And in a situation like that, that’s problematic for the incumbent party.

SIMON: What are you going to be watching for in the weeks ahead, Mr. Thau?

THAU: What I’m trying to understand, really, is to what degree is Harris, if at all, pulling from Trump or pulling from third-party candidates. To me, the third-party candidates, taken collectively – so you’re talking about Kennedy, West, Stein, Chase Oliver, the libertarian candidate – pulling together well in excess of 10% as a group – at least, they have been. And I’m looking to see if those numbers drop, where do they go, and why do they go there?

SIMON: Rich Thau of the public research firm Engagious. Thanks so much for being with us.

THAU: Thank you.

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