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When it comes to political violence, it’s hard to think of anything more shocking than an assassination attempt on a past and possibly future president. But there are still relatively few facts known publicly about the shooter at the Donald Trump rally this past weekend. So the question remains, if this was an act of political violence, what was the motivation behind it? NPR’s domestic extremism correspondent, Odette Yousef, takes on that question.

ODETTE YOUSEF, BYLINE: Cynthia Miller-Idriss says she was shocked by the shooting on Saturday, but she was not a bit surprised.

CYNTHIA MILLER-IDRISS: The only thing that surprised me is that we hadn’t seen it sooner.

YOUSEF: Miller-Idriss is with American University’s Polarization and Extremism Research and Innovation Lab.

MILLER-IDRISS: I thought that this was something that we were likely to see over the last year or two, given the conditions that lead to assassinations – political assassinations and the fact that we’ve been seeing them among our allies for the last few years.

YOUSEF: There have been political assassinations in Germany, Japan and a recent attempt in Slovakia. Miller-Idriss’ expectation that something like this would eventually happen in the U.S. is shared by others. Extremism experts say domestic factors have been steadily building to this moment. Threats against federal and local officials are now commonplace. And online, threats of violence against politicians are rising as the election cycle continues. But even for those who knew that something like Saturday’s shooting was inevitable, the pieces so far don’t quite fit what many might have expected.

ELIZABETH NEUMANN: I completely understand the assumption that we all drew after watching this attack occur that this was politically motivated. So far, we have very little evidence to suggest it’s that.

YOUSEF: Elizabeth Neumann is a former U.S. counterterrorism official and is now chief strategy officer at Moonshot. She says what makes this shooting an act of political violence is the choice of target, a former president and presidential candidate. But if it weren’t for that, would this shooting be considered political violence? The shooter had no known ties to extremist movements. He was registered to vote as a Republican, but he had also donated to a Democratic organization. This doesn’t add up to what many might expect in a would-be political assassin. But it is a profile that’s familiar to extremism experts like Neumann.

NEUMANN: Over and over again, whether it’s in Buffalo or Uvalde or the Highland Park shooting, we kind of have the same profile. They tend to be young, just coming out of their teen years, early adulthood, not coping well, struggling.

YOUSEF: Neumann says it’s possible that here, Trump was simply a convenient target in a quest for notoriety. But even if it turns out that the gunman wasn’t primarily trying to influence the political moment, he has. Cynthia Miller-Idriss says this shooting will forever be considered indirectly a product of and contributor to America’s problem of heightened political violence. For her, it’s also a critical juncture for all of us.

MILLER-IDRISS: I think this is a moment of reckoning for ordinary folks as well as for political elites.

YOUSEF: In the aftermath of the attack, accusations flew from GOP officials and Trump supporters claiming that the left had laid the groundwork by continually accusing Trump of destroying democracy. So far, no evidence has connected this rhetoric to the suspect’s motive. But Miller-Idriss says just as concerning to her is what she saw from some people on the left – people saying things like you reap what you sow or worse.

MILLER-IDRISS: We have gotten to a point where sort of ordinary people on the ground have lost the sense that they have an obligation to also condemn political violence, right? It’s not just what elites say in campaign speeches that matters. It’s what the coach says, or your teacher says in a classroom, in a one-off, or your colleague in the break room.

YOUSEF: Miller-Idriss says even those small comments chip away at Americans’ willingness to reject violence as a solution to political divides. Odette Yousef, NPR News.

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