SCOTT DETROW, HOST:

If you feel like the presidential election has been going on for more than a year, no one can blame you because it has been. But the first Monday in September marks the home stretch. Even though things are nearing the end, developments could come fast and furious over the next few months. NPR’s Franco Ordoñez and Domenico Montanaro have been watching developments for the last year and a half, and they will continue to do that through Election Day and beyond. Hey, Domenico.

DOMENICO MONTANARO, BYLINE: Hey, Scott.

DETROW: Franco, how’s it going?

FRANCO ORDOÑEZ, BYLINE: How are you, Scott?

DETROW: I’m doing great. And we have made it somehow to Labor Day, which, as we all know, has traditionally been that time of year where people really focus in on a presidential race. And Domenico, this race in particular got so many shake-ups this summer that I don’t even know how to describe where we are on Labor Day now, but there is intense focus in a race that up until this point was really characterized by a lack of focus by voters. Where do things stand right now to you?

MONTANARO: Well, we are where we were when the campaign started.

(LAUGHTER)

MONTANARO: Essentially where we are is all seven of the states that people have been watching pretty closely are in the toss-up category – the three Blue Wall states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, as well as the four Sun Belt states of Arizona and Nevada out West, as well as North Carolina and Georgia back East. When you look strictly at polling, though – and there’s been a few out this week as well – Harris has really made up a ton of ground, four to six points or more in a lot of these places. She’s leading now narrowly but consistently in those three Blue Wall states. And if she – Scott, if she’s able to hold those, she would be right at 270 electoral votes. So the map has really been scrambled for Trump, and a lot more paths have opened up for Harris. But this is still very, very close.

DETROW: It is wild that after all of the twists and turns of the summer, it’s those same seven states that it’s been all along. And here we are. Franco, so much attention on the brand-new Harris campaign this summer, the candidate introduction, picking of the running mate, the convention…

ORDOÑEZ: Yeah.

DETROW: …First interview we had this week. The secondary story of the Trump campaign was kind of a lack of focus, lack of momentum, not sure how to handle it. Where are things with Trump right now going into the fall? Has Trump kind of picked up the pace?

ORDOÑEZ: Yeah. I mean, there was definitely a lack of focus when Harris initially became the nominee – when Harris, you know, kind of took the reins from Biden. And the Trump campaign has absolutely ramped up its schedule, especially as Harris continues to gain momentum. I mean, he was really facing criticism for not adapting fast enough. But really, you know, since the DNC convention, he’s been barnstorming across battleground states, sometimes holding multiple events of day. He’s also doing some more interviews.

He’s posting more online, including on X, which, of course, is formally Twitter, which he was temporarily banned for. You know, he’s also getting more attention for some of that online activity, such as posting or at least reposting on his social media website suggestions that Harris traded sexual favors to further her political career, which, of course, is not true. Now, I am not sure that’s the kind of attention that Trump wants. But, again, attention is attention to Trump, and that could be a win for him.

DETROW: What is his goal, though at this point? Domenico laid out the fact that he lost just about all of his lead over the past couple of months.

ORDOÑEZ: Yeah. I mean, I think for one part, I mean, he wants to show that he can outwork Harris or at least not be outworked by Harris, even though he’s kind of the older candidate now. You know, as the campaign says, there’ll be no free shots on goal. You know, I think most of it, though, is trying to show, you know, as much of a contrast as possible with the Harris campaign, whether that means talking about specific policy issues – such as inflation, crime and safety, the border – but also attacking and feeding criticism of Harris for not kind of engaging more with the news media and clarifying her own positions in a more unscripted manner. You mentioned, of course, that she did the CNN interview, you know, the – her first since taking over for Biden. But the Trump campaign argues – or has been hammering her on this – that she’s not doing enough. And in the same period, he did dozens of interactions with the press. Though, I’ll just note, several of those were with very friendly media.

DETROW: Yeah. Domenico, you paid attention to the Harris interview the other day. One of the things that Franco mentioned was kind of, like, the personal attacks on a wide variety of fronts that Trump has been slinging her way. I thought it was notable that she kind of stuck to this approach she’s had before of – same old playbook, next – just didn’t want to engage at all in the personal attacks that Trump is issuing on her, even as her campaign does.

MONTANARO: Yeah, I mean, she did not take the race bait for lack of a better term. And this is something that Trump has been trying to do, drag her into sort of his tumult, drag her into the controversies that he’s created. And look, I mean, the fact is the last two Democratic nominees before Joe Biden were Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.

Barack Obama, obviously, Black man, first Black president, and he was very careful about walking this line about his race because he wanted to make sure that he could reach out to the middle, especially white Americans in the places that are swing states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. And you know, he had this language of the Midwest. So it’s something that he was kind of known for doing, wanting to appeal to downstate Illinois voters, for example, being somebody who was known as a, quote, “liquid coal” senator when he worked with Jim Bunning, the senator from neighboring Kentucky, because he really was trying to target those voters and show that he’s not some radical and that he could win. And guess what? He did.

Hillary Clinton took a little bit different approach in 2016, leaning in heavily to her gender, talking about the glass ceiling, and for a lot of voters that didn’t work. So Kamala Harris has seen both things. She has a bunch of Obama people on her team. And she’s clearly made the decision that she doesn’t want to lean into race and gender to give anybody any excuse to not vote for her. She’s sticking to the kinds of issues that are all geared toward the middle.

DETROW: Franco, wrapping things up with you. We started the conversation with Domenico saying for all the twists and turns of the summer, we’re kind of where the race started with seven states likely determining, yet all those states very close. Does Trump world view this as a fundamentally changed race or kind of the same basic fundamentals they were running on all along?

ORDOÑEZ: I mean, I – certainly, they see, you know, that there has been changes, but they also recognize that there are different dynamics. I mean, obviously, we’ve been watching how Trump has tried to tie Harris to, you know, the Biden administration, the Biden policies. At the same time, they definitely recognize that there has been a momentum shift, and they got to address it. I think that’s why you’re seeing such shifts in the campaign. I have – talking with members of the campaign who say they are going to continue to kind of ramp up these efforts. And they really have no choice. I mean, Harris has been riding this incredible wave – polls, the half a billion dollars in fundraising. The Trump campaign has to act, and that’s also why I think you’re seeing some shake-ups in the campaign staff.

DETROW: That’s Franco Ordoñez, as well as Domenico Montanaro. Thanks to both of you.

ORDOÑEZ: Thank you, Scott.

MONTANARO: You got it.

(SOUNDBITE OF MUSIC)

Copyright © 2024 NPR. All rights reserved. Visit our website terms of use and permissions pages at www.npr.org for further information.

NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.